Market view – The Daily News of 03/10/2025
GAS & POWER →
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Problems at the Troll production field appear to have been resolved, with overall flows expected this morning above 320 million cubic meters. However, maintenance will continue throughout the month of October, leaving open the possibility for new overhauls.
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Temperatures recovering over the weekend, however the high pressure will struggle to find stability on the Continent, with thermal values expected to be again below the averages for the period over the second decade of the month. After the peaks expected in the next 48 hours, with power prices in Germany particularly under pressure, wind generation capacity in Northern Europe is expected to return below the average values for the period.
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The protest organized by Greenpeace at the Zeebrugge terminal, the reference hub for the arrival of Russian gas by ship, which had caused the diversion of three LNG carriers to other European ports in the last two days, ended with the intervention of the police. The impact on the terminal proved to be limited, however, and this morning the Arctic Voyage ship began port approach operations.
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After signing a long-term supply agreement with Shell earlier this month, Hungarian state company MVM announced new contracts starting in 2028 with ENGIE. The agreement provides for the supply of 400 million tonnes per year of liquefied gas by ship, or equivalent by pipe. This new contract confirms MVM’s change of approach and its desire to decouple from Russian gas supplies
ITALIA →
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Balanced system: consumption at the lows of the week, put under pressure by the strong contribution of renewable sources. Maximized injection capacity in storage, as well as exports under long-term capacity from Tarvisio. On the regasification front, the LNG carrier Maran Gas Agamemnon arrived near the Ravenna terminal, with the landfill expected in the next few hours.
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ENI announced that it had reached agreement to develop the Coral North FLNG project, located off the coast of Mozambique. The 3.6 mtpa floating liquefaction terminal will lead to a doubling of the African country’s liquefaction capacity, and is expected to come into operation during 2028.
EQUITY ↑
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The technology and automotive sectors have driven the session on European markets, pushing the main indices towards new rises. Wall Street was also positive, where the publication of payroll data following the administrative shutdown was postponed.
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On the geopolitical front, the tone of the 27 against Russia is becoming harsher following the last meeting of the Heads of State in Copenhagen, while in the Middle East Hamas’ response to the Israeli-American peace plan is expected shortly.
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Exchange rate €/$ at 1,174
OIL ↓
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Crude oil prices did not hold up yesterday, losing over 7% on a weekly basis after the possibility that the OPEC group will support an increase in production quotas of around 500 thousand barrels per day from next November. The fire at one of the largest refineries on the West Coast of the United States has curbed sales in recent hours.
- Brent FM prices open at $64.50/bbl
EUAs ↑
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The rally continues on the emissions markets, capable of exceeding the highs of the beginning of the month this morning. Possible influence from the British market, where the exemption from the European CBAM mechanism, expected to come into force on January 1, 2026, is discussed, with the first declarations expected within the first half of the following year.
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At the beginning, prices on DEC25 stand at 78.75 €/tonne
