Market view – The Daily News of 22/10/2025
GAS & POWER →
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The supply outlook from the North Sea has improved this morning, with flows to the continent increasing by around five million cubic metres. The impact of the interventions planned for the next two weeks has been revised downwards.
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Unstable and relatively wet weather is expected in the coming days, but the latest updates show milder temperatures next week, with particularly windy conditions in Northern Europe.
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The estimated time needed to repair the fault on the gas pipeline connecting the Fos terminals to the transalpine internal network has been extended. According to the latest communications from the French TSO NaTran, the regasification capacity of the two plants will remain halved until 1 July, a three-month extension compared to the previous communication. The French government is also facing the issue of the Le Havre terminal, which has been shut down for over a year due to lack of competitiveness. Its operating licence, due to expire in 2028, has been called into question by a ruling from the Rouen court, which has ordered TotalEnergies to remove the Cape Ann FSRU unit within the next two months.
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On 16 October, Gazprom set a new record for daily gas supplies to China via Power of Siberia, exceeding its long-term contractual obligations with CNPC. This is the fourth time since deliveries began in earnest on 1 December last year. The pipeline has a nominal capacity of 38 billion cubic metres per year, which is expected to increase to 44 billion cubic metres in the coming years following recent agreements between the two countries.
ITALIA →
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Short-term outlook: consumption is expected to remain high at the end of the day, with a possible decline in the second half of the week due to a significant increase in wind power availability. Compared to yesterday, flows from Passo Gries and Mazara del Vallo are down due to the lower market premium expressed by the PSV in the last session. As expected, regasification from the Piombino terminal has resumed.
EQUITY →
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European markets got off to a rocky start after the American administration took steps backwards on several fronts. President Trump has stated that the planned meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi to discuss tariffs may not take place, while the Budapest summit with Putin has been essentially cancelled following tough talks between Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio. On this front, Europe is preparing a 12-point plan to reach an agreement between Moscow and Kiev that goes beyond territorial concessions.
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Positive signs from inflation in the United Kingdom, estimated to grow by +3.8% against analysts’ expectations of 4%.
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Exchange rate €/$ at 1,160
OIL ↓
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Sales that have recently affected crude oil markets are slowing down, with prices likely supported by both profit-taking and growing international tensions. Operators are concerned about the escalating situation in Venezuela, following the American admission of CIA involvement in the country.
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An update on US crude oil stocks is expected today, with the API forecast showing a decline of around 3 million barrels. On the subject of strategic reserves, the US government has announced its intention to purchase one million barrels, taking advantage of the recent fall in prices.
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Brent FM prices open at $62.20/bbl
EUAs →
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The situation on the emissions market does not seem to be improving, with prices compressed since the beginning of the month in the €75-80/tonne range. An update on the positions held by investment funds is expected this morning.
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On the political front, the European Commission has renewed the objectives of its climate agenda, which includes a reform of the current ETS system.
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At the beginning, prices on DEC25 stand at 79.30 €/tonne
