Market view – The Daily News del 15/10/2025
GAS & POWER →
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Re-maintenance published at the Gullfaks site in the last few hours, however with a very limited impact on Norwegian exports. Tomorrow, interventions of approximately 80 million cubic meters of equivalent capacity will be scheduled.
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The trend of transition to a milder and more unstable regime for the coming week remains confirmed, with all patterns indicating the progressive weakening of high pressure over the north-east Atlantic and the establishment of westerly currents. Greater uncertainty about the last days of the month, with a scenario however more oriented towards confirming unstable and relatively mild conditions.
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The French TSO Natran (previously GRTgaz) has published unscheduled maintenance involving the connection points of the Fos Cavaou and Fos Tonkin terminals with the country’s internal network. As a consequence, until April 1st, the regasification capacity of the terminals will be approximately halved, equal to 240 GWh/day. In the first quarter of this year, the combined capacity of the two plants was steadily above 400 GWh/day, with peaks above 430 GWh/day.
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While Russian attacks on Kiev’s energy infrastructure have intensified in recent days, and new raids were reported overnight by Naftogaz, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak once again said he was ready to discuss Russian gas supplies with European counterparts. Gas from Moscow continues to satisfy just under 20% of continental demand.
ITALIA →
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Short system: the state of deficit of the Italian gas system is confirmed, with consumption expected this morning again above the threshold of 170 million cubic metres. In recent days, the increase in consumption has been largely supported by a growth in gas-to-power demand, up 35% compared to the average recorded in the previous week.
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Argentine state company YPF and ENI have reached an agreement to develop a 12 mtpa liquefaction project, supported by resources from the Vaca Muerta field. ENI, which will be directly involved in the construction of the floating liquefaction terminal, aims to start production of the plant by the end of 2029
EQUITY ↓
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Positive European stock exchanges at the start of the day, dragged by the French index which is growing by more than two percentage points this morning. Bringing new enthusiasm is Prime Minister Lecornu’s announcement on the suspension of pension reform until the current presidential term expires in 2027, a condition that could lead to reaching agreement on the budget law that has blocked the government in recent weeks. Further support came from the upward revision of growth estimates by the International Monetary Fund, with the Euro area improving by’1.2%, compared to +1.0% in the previous report, thanks to growth in Spain and the pause in German austerity.
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Tension remains high between China and the United States, with new specific tariffs threatened overnight by American President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell said he was concerned about the effect of the tariffs on the US workforce, while paving the way for a further cut in the cost of money by the end of the year.
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Exchange rate €/$ at 1,164
OIL ↓
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Sentiment on the crude oil market remains under pressure after the latest clashes on the tariff front between China and the United States. Fed Chairman Powell’s words are also worrying on the American demand front.
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The API update on the status of crude oil stocks is expected in the evening, the government data tomorrow. Publication follows a day late due to Monday’s national holiday (Columbus Day).
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In its latest report the International Energy Agency projects a significant surplus in the supply-demand ratio over the first quarter of next year, very close to 4 million barrels per day for a total production estimated at 109 million barrels per day.
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Brent FM prices open at $62.30/bbl
EUAs ↑
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The uncertainty that emerged from the financial markets and a renewed correlation with the crude oil markets fueled sales yesterday. The relationship between China and the United States remains at the center of attention of operators, while the update of the positions held by investment funds is expected today.
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At the beginning, prices on DEC25 stand at 77.30 €/tonne
