Market view – The Daily News of 13/10/2025
GAS & POWER →
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Less severe temperatures than initially expected in the next few days and the scarecrow of the rekindling of a trade war between China and the United States put pressure on gas prices at the start of the week.
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After yet another short break over the weekend, incoming flows from the North Seas quickly returned above the 300 million cubic meter mark. New interventions, with a growing impact, are scheduled starting from Thursday.
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The high pressure dominating northwestern Europe will continue to provide stable, dry conditions for much of this week, with temperatures expected to drop significantly below average for the period over the weekend only. On the other hand, the chances are growing for a return of currents of Atlantic origin starting next week, responsible for more active conditions and decidedly milder temperatures in the last part of the month.
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On Friday, Elengy again extended the impact of the strike demonstrations taking place in France on the operation of its terminals. Specifically, the Fos Cavaou plant has seen its network regasification capacity reset until October 15th, compared to the almost 20 million cubic meters per day previously mentioned.
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European storage recorded a week characterized by limited injections, mainly concentrated on the weekend. A dynamic that could also be repeated in the next few days, thanks to the harsher weather and the recent operational reductions at the French regasification terminals. The average filling level exceeded the ’83% threshold at the weekend, in 2024 storage was 95% full in the same period with an average of just under 92% in the previous five years.
ITALIA →
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Short system: consumption revised significantly at the start of the week, at the highest for the period from 2022. Compared to central-northern Europe, Italy should see cooler temperatures on average, with a decisive start to the heating ignition campaign. Arrivals from North Africa are growing again, although they remain below the levels of the previous year. Possible reduction in exports to Austria during the day to rebalance the system.
EQUITY ↓
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The threat of new 100% American tariffs on Chinese goods, applicable from November 1st, triggered a downward correction in the markets late on Friday afternoon. Yet another surprise move by President Trump came in response to the strengthening of Beijing’s positions on rare earth control announced in previous days. During the weekend the first attempts to dampen the new frictions arrived, but the situation remains evolving.
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On other fronts, the Sharm el-Sheikh summit is expected today, where the official signing of the truce agreements between Israel and Hamas is expected. In France, on the other hand, President Macron has given the green light to a Lecornu-bis government, which has the aim of finding agreement on the financial manoeuvre before the end of the year.
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Exchange rate €/$ at 1,160
OIL ↓
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The return of trade disagreements between China and the United States brought crude oil prices to their lowest level since the beginning of June, renewing an element of uncertainty that had characterized the market in the second quarter of the year, with prices then falling below the threshold of $60/bbl even for the most widespread tariff campaign made in the USA.
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On the demand side, Chinese crude oil imports in September grew by 4% compared to last year, however down overall compared to the previous month of August.
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Brent FM prices open at $63.75/bbl
EUAs ↑
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The emissions market continues to be well supported by purchases, and at least at this start to the week, only minimally affected by the volatility that has emerged on the financial markets. The bullish moment of investment funds continues, with long bets on record levels recorded in the latest report.
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At the beginning, prices on DEC25 stand at 78.90 €/tonne
